Thursday, February 2, 2012

The Trump Bump

There are plenty of nasty things one can say about Donald Trump, but you must applaud his tenacity for elbowing his way into the public narrative. With the latest season of the Celebrity Apprentice starting after the Super Bowl, the public relations machine kicked into gear and he decided it was time to endorse a candidate. How it came to be that Donald Trump is a respected political mind is unclear. Somehow he has become a fairly major player in the Republican process, despite the fact that he hasn't uttered a cogent political statement in his entire life. Trump's influence illustrates the perverse intersection of money, politics, and celebrity. Gingrich's entire campaign has essentially been funded by a Nevadan businessman named Shelly Aldeson. If one man's money can prop up an entire campaign why have a middleman? Adelson eschews the spotlight, and Trump embraces it, but both use their money to influence politics in similar ways.

Yesterday Drudge blared headlines that indicated that Trump would endorse Gingrich. In a surprising turn, today Trump endorsed Romney with the candidate on hand in Nevada. Trump knows how to back a winner, or more specifically, he knows how to get the heck away from a loser. Trump probably awoke to headlines proclaiming that Romney was in store for a big win in Saturday's Nevada caucus, and reneged on his pledge to Gingrich. If Trump can't pick a winner in the Republican Primary, how could he determine whether Lou Ferrigno or Clay Aiken is a better apprentice.

Trump said he wouldn't launch a third party bid if Romney was the nominee. This was probably a big part of his endorsement; there is nothing that scares him more than actually having to run for president. The media coverage is all good and fun when it's speculative, but once he made official the hounds would be all over him. One doesn't become a mega millionaire without some skeletons in their closet, just ask Mitt Romney. If you think Romney's tax returns were problematic, Trump's would probably inspire a collective suicide on the scale of Jonestown.

Saturday's primary promises to be a boring affair. Though Nevada is a state known for its debauchery, its Republican base is roughly 1/3 Mormon. It's a caucus state where Mitt's organization will help him carry the day. He won 51% in 08 at a time when his campaign was flailing and McCain was on his way to solidifying the nomination. Shelly Adelson will suffer a tough defeat in his backyard. Ron Paul got 14% in 08, so with better funding and organization he may well come in second. Santorum just received the endorsement of Tea Party favorite, and losing senatorial candidate, Sharon Angle, so there is some chance that Newt may find himself in fourth. Newt has pledged to go on to the convention so an expected loss in Saturday's primary will probably do little to deter him. As his campaign spirals further and further out of control, expect him to sharpen his attacks on Romney. The 2012 Republican primary has the potential to severely weaken Romney because of the shear meanness of the candidates. At least he has Trump's endorsement, and an assured spot on the 13th season of the Celebrity Apprentice, should this whole President thing not work out for him.

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