The following post appeared on The Faster Times earlier today. I'd just like to add a small addendum; I think I've finally figured out the key to Mitt's weakness. In his concession speech last night, with the Colorado count still in question Mitt said something to the effect of "I think we will come in 1st or 2nd when all the votes are in." It's this kind of equivocation that illustrates his weakness, Republicans want someone with balls who doesn't let harsh facts get in the way of portraying a happy message. Think back to Ronald Reagan, who in response to being caught in a lie said "My heart and my best intentions tell me that’s true, but the facts and evidence tell me it is not." This is the kind of thing Republicans eat up, Romney should've just declared victory in Colorado and tried to spin the night in a positive way.
Now on to our regularly scheduled broadcast:
Last night, Rick Santorum pulled off a fairly surprising sweep in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Santorum built momentum in the previous week following Mitt Romney’s gaffe about the very poor and Newt Gingrich’s bizarre ramblings. Romney’s misstep, besides playing poorly with Democrats and Independents, also angered Conservatives. Sensitive to the charge that they don’t care about the poor, Conservatives don’t want to cede ground to Democrats. Moreover, Romney’s assertion that the poor have a safety net sounded like nails on a chalkboard; Republicans instead want to hear a stirring defense of Conservatism and Capitalism. They want to hear that their economic policies will lift up every American and not allow some folks to stay on the public dole. Romney’s statement further alienated Conservatives who just don’t believe that he’s one of them. His inability to articulate the conservative economic message is a lasting issue and may doom his chances, whether in the Primary or the General.
Also aiding Santorum were last week’s high profile battles over social values. The Planned Parenthood decision by the Komen Foundation and the ruling that Catholic hospitals were required to provide contraception restoked the flames of long burning values wars. These issues are Santorum’s bread and butter and he’s able to connect with voters and tap into their resentment. Romney, and Gingrich to a lesser extent, just aren’t able to speak with the same forcefulness on these issues as Santorum.
Of Santorum’s three wins last night, Missouri is the least important. Because of a strange quirk, Missouri’s primary was essentially a glorified poll and delegates will actually be chosen in a mid-March caucus. Santorum had figured that Missouri could be his for the taking; it has a strong evangelical base, Newt Gingrich was absent from the ballot, and Romney wasn’t dedicating many resources to winning it. Still, Santorum’s win had some significance. While turnout was way below 2008 numbers, roughly 250,000 people went to the polls. Santorum had a dominant win, doubling up Romney, while passing the elusive 50% barrier. A meaningless primary means that only the diehards will turnout, a fact that favored Santorum. Social values voters flocked to the polls and gave him a big win.
Santorum had a more meaningful win in Minnesota. Minnesota was seen as a tossup going into it and polls predicted a modest Santorum win. Instead, he cruised to victory, finishing 18% in front of Ron Paul. Minnesota’s Republican party is made up of Christian conservatives, such as Michelle Bachmann, and Libertarians. Despite the lack of his ideal conservative voter and Minnesota’s history of picking outsiders (Jesse Ventura won the governorship as an Independent in 1998), Romney still had high hopes. He was endorsed by his former opponent, Governor Tim Pawlenty, and he had scored a big win there in 2008. Instead, he finished a weak 3rd behind Santorum and Dr. Paul. Romney saw his real vote total drop by about 17,000 votes and his share of the vote drop by about 25%. This is where last night’s results get especially troubling for Romney. If he was able to have such success in the state as John McCain was sailing to the nomination, how can he explain his precipitous drop? An oft quoted number in this election cycle has been that 54% of voters say that the more they get to know Romney, the less they like him. In Minnesota we see proof positive of that fact.
In Colorado we see evidence of the same. Colorado was supposed to be in the bag for Romney last night. Polls predicted a nine point Romney win and instead he lost by 5%, a sharp decline from his 2008 success. In 2008 Romney won 60% of the vote. Last night he won just 35% and saw his vote total drop by about 20,000 real votes. Colorado was the biggest upset last night and it should really trouble the Romney campaign. Despite the facts that Colorado has a substantial Christian Conservative edge (Focus on the Family is headquartered there), it was still supposed to be in Romney’s western wheelhouse. The fact that voters are essentially fleeing the Romney camp cannot bode well for the sense of inevitably his campaign has been advancing.
Let’s get this point out of the way, Newt Gingrich is done. Gingrich’s strength lay in his ability to rage against Democratic strawmen and the fact that he’s not Mitt Romney. Well, it appears Republicans have decided that being not Newt Gingrich is almost as big a virtue as being not Mitt Romney. With Ron Paul appealing only to a very specific sector of the party, it is now a very good time to be Rick Santorum.
But how potentially strong is Santorum? Many in the east coast elite circles I run in see Santorum as a joke. He’s known for his gay bashing and the eponymous scatological phrase it has spawned. But he has an ability to connect with voters; he was able to win a senatorial campaign in Pennsylvania in 2000 as the state was voting for Al Gore. When Santorum speaks he sounds earnest, a sharp contrast to both Romney and Gingrich. Also, Santorum may be more moderate than many like to admit. He comes from the George Bush school of “compassionate conservatism” and that will play better with many voters than Romney who brags about not caring about the poor.
Still, the name of the game is money and Santorum doesn’t have enough, yet. It’s a testament to his political skill that he’s made it this far, winning four of the first eight Republican races, while getting outspent ten to one by Romney and more marginally, yet still significantly, by Paul and Gingrich. Perhaps his big night will inspire more donations as social conservatives are a community that is willing to give. After his Iowa win, I compared Santorum to Tim Tebow, and just like Tebow, Santorum has managed to string together a couple surprising wins.
And what of Mr. Romney? Mitt had a terrible night, made worse by the fact that he was attacked by a would be “glitter” bomber who was stopped by Mitt’s Secret Service detail. There is something poetic about the fact that Romney has a security detail. He has all the accoutrements of a successful candidate — the looks, the money, the security detail — and yet he has none of the successes. Romney should be very scared by the fact that his real vote totals are evaporating in states where he’s had prior success.
The Republican attitude seems to be a pox on both their houses. Conservative Blogger Erick Erickson endorsed “The Sweet Meteor of Death” for president, and seems to be openly pining for a brokered convention. Turnout was way down in all three contests, which is not the sign of a party enthusiastic about any of their choices. Republicans love to point to the Democratic battle of 2008 as reason why a long process is not fatal. But in 2008 the Democrats saw turnout increase, while the Republicans see turnout plunging. It seems like we’re in it for the long haul. At this point I wouldn’t be stunned to see all four candidates take the battle to the convention. All the while, President Obama is surely sitting in the White House thanking his Kenyan Muslim God that he won’t have to run against a tough challenger. All four candidates have significant liabilities and shouldn’t pose too serious a threat to him in November.
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