Well what a long strange trip its been. After a multitude of debates, and seemingly every candidate, besides Huntsman, having their moment in the sun, the Iowa Caucuses are today. It seems apropos that it falls on the first business day of the new year, because the year will almost certainly be dominated by the presidential campaign. Obama and his Republican opponent will spend record breaking amounts of money, and voters can expect a deluge of media attempting to win their vote. Given the apocalyptic rhetoric of many Republicans, we can look forward to a pitched battle that will almost certainly be proclaimed "the most important election of our lifetime."
The caucus takes place at 8pm tonight. The caucus process is different than a typical election, there is a drawn out process where voters make speeches in support of the candidates. Tonight, roughly, 120,000 Iowa's will flock to caucus locations across the state, and cast the first ballots of the 2012 election.
That said lets take a look at our crystal ball and attempt to project the outcome of tonight's caucus: In first place, we like Mitt Romney. If the weather was worse we'd like Ron Paul, but the clear forecast gives Romney the advantage. I think there is a large element of the Republican Party that is so desperate to beat Obama, they'll vote based on electability. Similar to his fellow Massachusetts' lawmaker John Kerry, Romney has all the gaudy measurables that seem to make a good presidential candidate. He's wealthy, handsome, and moderate enough to appeal to independent voters. In a crowded field, with many campaigns vying for similar subsets of voters, I think Mitt's coalition built around his electability will win the day.
In second, we project Ron Paul. His voters are die-hard which is important in a caucus, but he has little crossover appeal to supporters of the other candidates. He is a polarizing candidate. Iowa also doesn't have an open system, which hurts Paul. If Democrats and Independents could vote in the caucus, it would likely benefit Mr. Paul. The media will likely downplay Mr. Paul's success, but his rising support indicates a real anger with politics as usual.
In a relative upset, we like Rick Perry for 3rd place. Since his various stumbles, Perry has largely eschewed the media spotlight, but Republican blogs seem to indicate that he still has a lot of support. He will be an attractive candidate in southern primaries, and if he can come in 3rd tonight he will likely become Mr. Romney's number one rival. Perry is a prodigious fundraiser, and a boost tonight will reinvigorate his campaign. He's been positioning himself as the choice of social conservatives, and that's a large base in Iowa. 3rd place depends on who these social conservatives turn to, with Bachmann, Santorum and Perry vying for their votes.
In 4th place, flavor of the week Rick Santorum. Santorum is a similar candidate to Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 Iowa Caucus. Like Huckabee, Santorum is a strong social conservative, who leaves himself open to criticism by those who see him as a big government conservative. If Santorum had started to peak a little earlier, he may have a been a strong contender for 1st, but it seems it's too little too late. Santorum's recent support seems to be almost by default, as voters soured on the other contenders. Whoever finishes stronger between Santorum and Perry will likely emerge as Mr. Romney's chief rival. Santorum could be an attractive Vice-President choice for Mitt Romney, with his social conservative bonafides.
In 5th place, we see Mr. Gingrich limping to the finish line. Gingrich has been pulling out all of the stops in recent days. He broke into tears, in a move reminiscent of Hillary Clinton, before a forum of women voters. Today, he's making news calling Mr. Romney a liar. Gingrich had his time to shine, but voters were reminded of his problematic personality. The Republican establishment brought out the knives, and wounded his campaign. As we've documented in earlier reports, all manner of Republican media types blasted Mr. Gingrich. Combined with his unlikable personality, Gingrich won't be able to compete.
Beyond that, some combination of Cain, Huntsman, and Bachmann rounding out the field. Cain, though he's stopped campaigning, is still on the ballot, though in a caucus his lack of infrastructure will be deadly. Bachmann could surprise us with a strong finish. If she can win over social conservatives she could make some noise, but we just don't see that happening. Huntsman has not been able to gain traction this whole election, look for him to end his campaign after a last place finish tonight, and a weak showing in New Hampshire.
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