Florida and the State of the Race

The frenetic Republican primary has its latest test today in Florida. Florida, of course, is a land of beginnings and ends, where baseball spring training and retirement communities exist side by side. A state that, despite having no income tax, has two major public universities. It's the state that's gotten our country in this giant mess in the first place. If 15,000 farsighted Jewish grandparents hadn't voted for a a borderline Nazi or tens of thousands of African Americans hadn't been illegally disenfranchised, maybe this country wouldn't have had to go thru the horror of the George Bush era. Florida is a dichotomous state, where coastal elites coexist with backwater rural folks, a reality that has made it the ultimate political battleground.

Today's primary promises beginnings and ends. It's the end of the beginning, the race has boiled down to 4 remaining contenders after the action packed months leading up to the first votes of the electoral season. It's also the beginning of the end, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney seem to be the only viable candidates remaining. Newt and Mitt hate each other on a deeply personal level, and Newt has pledged to continue onto the convention regardless of the outcome of the coming battles. Newt is practicing a scorched earth strategy, insulting Romney on a deeply personal level. Newt is a known egomaniac, a narcissist, who's witch hunt against Clinton was caused by Clinton 'snubbing him' on the way to Yitzhak Rabin's funeral. Romney's negative campaigning has aroused Gingrich's sensitive side, and now he seems unwilling to back down. Newt has used dog whistle tactics in recent days, subtly raising questions about Romney's mormon faith, by bringing up his supposed lack of respect for Jews and Catholics.

I predict today's race will find Romney a strong winner, Gingrich will finish in a weak second. Santorum in a strong third, and Paul will continue to simultaneously inspire and disgust various segments of the party. Regardless, they will all continue on and this sideshow that is the GOP primary will travel on to the next race.

This month promises some calm. Most of the primaries and caucuses this month have clear favorites. In Nevada, for example, the state's large Mormon population will likely make Mitt a winner. The caucus states will favor organization, a boon to Paul and Romney. There will be no debates this month, causing a glaring hole in my television watching schedule. Also, this may make all the candidates go on even harsher attack, because they won't have the opportunity to score points during debates, and they'll also be protected from having to defend their attacks.

The new allocation of Republican delegates, shifting away from a winner take all system, will allow all the candidates to make the mathematical argument that the race is still very much undecided. This coming month promises a lull, and it's unclear if the Republican base will be able to be shaken from the belief that a Romney candidacy is inevitable. While Romney's support seems like it's a mile wide and an inch deep, he has shown some resilience in holding off his challengers. Though that is mainly a testament to his superior fundraising. Money is the game in politics, and it's hard to question Romney's ability to make vast sums of it.