In yesterday's exclusive report on the Republican Primary, we speculated that the wide open nature of the race might entice additional candidates, perhaps Sarah Palin or Jeb Bush, to join. The Redel Traub Report's crystal ball doesn't see Palin as a credible candidate, and considers her pondering a ploy to continue her celebrity. As a politician Palin seems profoundly lazy. Seeing her Q-rating skyrocket after her run for Vice President, she abruptly resigned her position as Governor of Alaska in an attempt to further her media celebrity. In the years since she has played political pundit on Fox News, and had a reality TV show on TLC that showcased her family's Alaskan roughnecking ways. The show was admittedly entertaining, I particularly enjoyed a cross over episode with Kate Gosselin and her brood, of "John and Kate + 8", as well as, an episode where the Palin's panned for gold to turn into an anniversary present for Sarah's parents. (In hindsight, the fact that there was a time in my life where I enjoyed "Sarah Palin's Alaska," and "The Celebrity Apprentice," probably indicates some severe emotional trauma that I've repressed.) Since the Republican Primary season has begun, Palin has seen her public visibility regress, and her latest statement is likely just to milk out a few more news appearances.
On the other hand, Jeb Bush has the Republican base waiting to see his next move following an impassioned editorial in The Wall Street Jounral titled "Capitalism and the Right to Rise," which can be seen here http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203893404577100330414585006.html. The article uses campaign style rhetoric, setting up a dichotomy between his economic vision and that of the Democrats. Republican insiders in the media, like David Brooks and Byron York, have speculated whether this article presages a run by Bush. Bush, of course, has a reasonably strong Republican record as Governor of Florida, and is seen as more intelligent and a better speaker than his brother, former Pres. George W. Bush. Jeb is hampered by his last name, as his brother is still viewed unfavorably by many, which makes sense because his presidency was an unmitigated disaster. George W. Bush weakened the Republican brand, causing them to lose both houses of Congress by fairly dramatic margins. The Republican Party, which has had to rebrand itself with the Tea Party to evade the damage caused by Bush, might be wary to nominate someone who reminds the public of him.
Further muddying the waters is the electoral calculus that all potential candidates are surely considering. Do they want to challenge President Obama, with his vast campaign warchest and his strong electoral infrastructure. Their best bet might be to wait until 2016, as opposed to perhaps ruining their public image in a losing campaign. Obama, as polls have shown, is certainly vulnerable. His presidency has been a disappointment to many, and it seems hard to imagine that he can engender the same enthusiasm that he had at his back in 2008. Still Obama is an excellent campaigner, a prodigious fund raiser, and has the benefit of incumbency. This evaluation may be what scared off strong candidates like Chris Christie, for example, leaving the current weak field.
On the lighter side of campaign news, watch this video of Newt Gingrich meeting an Iowan voter, http://www.buzzfeed.com/gavon/newt-gingrich-called-very-bad-name-by-voter-in-iow. The voter seems to take a dim view of Mr. Gingrich, and is not afraid to tell him how he feels.
In light of his stagnating campaign, Newt has taken to attacking Mr. Romney. He blasted Mitt for a super-PAC ad, that he called misleading. The ad alleges that Obama is rooting for Gingrich, because his 'baggage' will make him unelectable. Gingrich has begun to respond in kind, going increasingly negative over the past several days. As the January 3rd primary gets closer and closer, the Republicans are sure to get more and more nasty. With the inherent strengths of the Obama campaign, which we reviewed above, this messy primary may do the Republicans irreparable harm in the coming election. Some may point to the 2008 battle between Mr. Obama and Hillary Clinton, which grew quite heated, as an example where a tough primary didn't spell disaster for the party. This year's Republican seems to have taken on a nastier tone, and the various factions seem more splintered than the Democrat's in the last election cycle. With this pitched battle, perhaps Mr. Bush, Mr. Christie, and others, have made the right decision to remain above the fray.
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