Perhaps because I was suffering from a terminal case of senioritis when I was supposed to be learning AP Statistics, opinion polls have always seemed both magical and unbelievable to me. While I understand that pollsters create wildly intricate models to mirror the expected composition of the electorate, I’ve always thought it was incredible that pollsters could make sweeping pronouncements based on the thoughts of 2000 people across the country. I mention this as we turn to the general election, because from now until November we will be subjected to a deluge of polls. We’ll see nationwide polls, polls of the battleground states; we’ll get to intimately understand the difference between likely voters and registered voters. In the coming months, political pundits, both professional and amateur, will scrutinize each and every one in an attempt to glean some information about the state of the race.
Since Santorum dropped out of the race, we’ve already been hit with the first wave of polls. The results are fairly varied, Obama by 5, Romney by 5, Obama by 2, or a statistical dead heat, but they seem to indicate that this will be a close race. This seems to be par for the course of contemporary American politics, the last 3 presidential elections have been incredibly close, even the Obama “landslide” of 08 was only a 53-46 Obama win.
That point is significant. 08 was a dream year for the Democrats, Bush had saddled the country with a tanking economy that was unarguably his own, McCain was a candidate who alienated some in the Republican party and he ran with an albatross around his neck in the form of Sarah Palin. These factors combined with a Democratic candidate who tapped into youthful enthusiasm and convinced many apathetic voters to come to the polls, illustrate that American politics is sharply divided among partisan lines and nothing can really change the mind of about 40+% of either sides base of support.
With that said, I think we’re in for a very close election. The Republican primary was met with glee by many Democrats, including myself, who saw it as stripping away the veneer of Romney’s electability. But Romney has won the day, and Republicans are fired up about beating Barack Obama. For whatever reason, Republicans see Obama as an apocalyptic character. If you check the comments section of almost any news site, you’ll be met with a litany of comments saying the 2012 election is a transformational election, a battle for the very heart and soul of America(This is standard election year fare). Some speculate about a civil war if Obama is reelected and others assume he’ll institute martial law in the event he loses. I’m not sure fears about Romney’s conservative bonafides will be enough to prevent many Republicans from flocking enthusiastically to the polls.
I can almost commiserate with these conservatives. I remember the 2004 election and my overwhelming desire to see Bush knocked out of office. I saw the 04 election as a real turning point in American history, we could either continue down the crazy rabbit hole of the Bush policies or right the ship slightly with a Kerry presidency. While this seems somewhat emotional and overwrought looking back on it, it’s actually kind of true. Without a second Bush term would we’ve been subjected to the horrors of Katrina, to a global financial collapse, to the continuation of unwinnable wars in the Mideast? Republicans are right that this is a transformational election, America is at an undeniable crossroads. The next President will decide if America accepts the austerity of the "Ryan plan" or if we'll reaffirm that government has a crucial role to play in providing for the well being of many citizens.
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